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Old 05-15-2012 | 06:52 AM
  #10  
Stitches
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Joined: Oct 2011
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Originally Posted by Wollac
Actually, no. US unemployment topped out at 10.0% in October 2009. Over the last 2.5 years, it has been steadily improving, currently at 8.1%.
Technically true however this stat is politically motivated spin.

An apples to apples comparison would look at the underemployment rate now (17%) vs 2009 (14%-17% throughout the year) or whatever year you want to use. Lots of people still out there that can't find work.

GDP growth is another excellent indicator. Taken together the provide a pretty accurate picture of no substantial improvement in the past couple years which according to economytrack.org (where I got my #'s) show no improvement in employment and slight growth in the gdp.

As far as the assumption that all these retirements will result in a 1 for 1 pilot job, I dissagree.

Take a look at the big picture and you'll see lots of consolidation in the airline industry with all the mergers going on. Mergers create effeciencies that reduce the need for manpower. As the price of fuel goes up the requirement for larger more efficient aircraft will increase, however without any substantial capacity growth the total # of a/c and pilots will be reduced as the smaller rj's get parked.

One last tidbit of info that doesn't bode well for pilot hiring is take a look over on the Delta thread how the company is attempting to increase utilization of their reserve pilots in the new contract talks. Read between the lines and you'll see Delta is attempting to mitigate the upcomming retirements by reducing the need for staffing. Other company's will follow suit in short order.
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