The OP is going to be in for a real disappointment. It doesn't surprise me the viewpoint is coming from a RJ FO, god only knows they need hope and change to believe in.

What you don't include in your "when was the last time in 30 years..." speech are the following:

*When was the last time in 30 years that oil stayed at and projected to stay at $95-$140 per barrel?

*When was the last time legacies merged together, killing names like TWA, NWA, AWA, Continental, etc.?

*When was the last time a legacy liquidated?


The future retirement problem will easily self-address itself if:

1. A legacy liquidates.
2. More mergers continue... think AA/US Air and then some.
3. Fleet types are reduced in numbers, with an increase in seats available (aka, replacing DC9s and MD88s with 737-900s).
4. Regionals liquidate altogether.

And keep in mind, IF it ever gets that that bad, the majors (through the ATA) will get the law changed that their own pilot ab-initio are exempt from the ATP rule, and you will see exactly what happens at foreign airlines like Singapore, Malaysian, etc. Ab-initio pilots will fill the cockpits. That expense will be paid for by the airline. Just like at the foreign carriers, the airline hires you with 0 pilot experience and then trains you and eventually you end up on the line. The competition for that is STIFF at foregin carriers. Once that happens here, the shortage will end. People will line up in droves for ab-initio programs offered by Delta, American, and United.... which will be the only legacies in the future.