I'm by no means a doom-and-gloomer, but there's an awful lot of area between having your 'head buried in the sand' and having rainbows bursting out of your posterior.

There will ***NEVER*** be a shortage of qualified pilots (defined as holding an ATP with at least some multi-turbine PIC experience) for the 'best' aviation jobs, because historically (even through the last 'lost decade') they provide superior compensation and quality of life.

This means Delta, SWA, FedEx, UPS, Fortune 100 corporate jobs, etc.

Jobs that can't, don't or won't provide superior compensation and quality of life (ie. regionals) will struggle to recruit new pilots and/or retain existing pilot talent. THAT is where the 'pilot shortage' will be.

I hope the most optimistic among us are correct, and there is a gigantic sucking sound created as the top of the pilot pool retires, providing career movement & progression for every segment of the professional piloting industry.

I certainly wouldn't bet my personal or financial future on that possibility, however...