Old 05-17-2012 | 12:45 PM
  #64  
BE19Pilot
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 239
Likes: 0
Default

Originally Posted by embraer
This is going to be funny, and I don't care.

Every single time a person points to FACTS indicating the POTENTIAL for a pilot shortage in the next few years, some jackwagon will pop up with 5th grade humor dismissing the whole thing.

Of course, we get the always classic: "I've been hearing about a pilot shortage since XXXXX"

So, for all of YOU out there... Riddle me this.

When in the past 30 years have any of the following been true:

Military pipeline all but dried up. Fewer people becoming military pilots and even fewer leaving for jobs with the airlines.

Professional AMERICAN flight students going the way of the dodo bird. Just ask any CFI of any major or medium sized flight school how many AMERICAN students they have pursuing a Commercial.

Federal law establishing a MINIMUM number of flight hours required before being hired by an airline. No reducing minimums down to 250 TT when you have trouble hiring.

Impending MASSIVE retirements at all the Legacies. No ifs or buts on this one. The numbers are plain black and white. The vast majority of pilots flying for the legacies today will be retired within the next 10 years. The bulk of which will begin leaving next year.

Add all of that to the fact that air travel is INCREASING year after year. Unless some of you believe we will go back to horses and steam trains it is safe to say that air travel is here to stay. Even more than that...it is projected to keep growing. Particularly international travel.

So, point to me when in the past 30 or so years have all the factors come together at once? Many have never even existed before.

There was a time when an F-16 pilot was counting down the days to make the jump to AA, Delta, US Air, etc... for six figures. That was called the 80s. Shoot, let's even call it the 90s.

Not so anymore. There was also a time when students were lining up outside flight schools and aviation colleges to pursue a career with the airlines.

Gone. If any of you think differently I suggest speaking with a current CFI.

The days of dropping minimums to a wet Commercial? LONG GONE. The Federal Government has stepped in and set a floor. ATP or 1,000 if you did ALL your flight training at an aviation college.

I am not even presenting this thread as a conversation starter. I know 80% of this board has their default setting set to doom and gloom regardless of anything else.

I just couldn't bite my tounge anymore. I'll wrap this up by saying one more thing:

Word to your mother!

All very valid points, but there is one additional thing that needs to be pointed out. There will be a pilot shortage, but NOT at the "Legacy" carriers. The shortage will be at the regional airlines. There will not be a shortage of qualified applicants when the legacies hire, and the regional airline sector will use the "pilot shortage" at their level to begin using expats to fill the seats cheaper than they have to pay an American. Mark my words, it's coming. And, to anyone that thinks consolidation at the legacies is over...Well, watch and see how little they actually hire compared to estimates as recent as last year before the age-65 rule fully matured. It's all about "meat in the seat" as CHEAP as possible. This is business...I don't like it anymore than you do, but it's a reality that one needs to understand. Deregulation, while great for the passenger has completely wrecked it as a decent profession.
Reply