Old UAL CA made a statement on the thread "Delta TA Overview" that wasn't well received. It was brief but I think what he is trying to say is that market forces are very difficult to overcome regarding the direction this often bizarre and tumultuous industry goes. We are in a great time of change in this industry and the Delta TA (for good or bad) is a watershed moment and a turning point in the future of the major/regional airline industry. Now before everyone gets their pitchforks and nooses out, lets look at whats going on here and think about what is best for our collective future as a soon to be unified pilot group.
Should the UniCal JNC be considering the Delta scope TA? I think most would resoundingly say no, I don't think they have much of a choice and I'm not here to argue for or against what is before the Delta pilots-plenty of threads doings that. But lets look at WHY the Delta TA is what it is and why I believe our pilots groups will have to consider it's implications (especially in negotiations).
Folks, our future at UCH comes down to one main factor these days and that is the cost of petroleum. It is has steadily become the driving force behind where our industry is headed and the Delta TA is really a statement about the future effect strategists believe fuel prices will have on this business.
Let's look at orders for airplanes. Bulging at the seams for Busses and 737's, hardly noticeable for the 90-130 seat range and a massive order looming for the 76 seaters IF the Delta scope TA prevails across this industry. I'm not arguing for or against, so don't get that idea.
So why the tepid 90-130 orders in the US? Because fuel prices are driving the majors to actually reduce their reliance on regional feed over time and direct that flying back to the next gen Busses and 737's that will become huge RJ's with single class high density seating. You run the numbers as fuel goes $150, $200, $250 a barrel and you'll see a strategy. However, there will always be places the big guys have zip interest in going and just like SWA has no interest. In steps the Delta style regional vision (be it jet or prop) as these 50 seaters die slowly in the scrap yard. My point is fuel is by far the greatest factor in our future and it will dictate where we go, what we buy and who flies what. We can beat our chests all day and think that as pilots we are critical to fleet decisions, however we are insignificant to petrol and the effect it has on our careers, the careers of regional pilots, your friend's and families' lifestyle and fortune, the future of the US economy or the destiny of the whole damn planet?!
There has been a lot of consistent chatter that the JNC is in a similar position as the Delta guys have now publicly been put in. The decision is to minimize the effect on our careers fuel is going to have as airplanes have to become bigger, more densely packed and required to generate cash flow through a multitude of sources. From all the factors that are aligning in the industry as of late when you put them together it begins to form a picture of a future that is clearly painted through the brush of fuel prices...and because of this negotiations regarding scope are going to center on the need for the 70 seat RJ to fly where a 50 used to go less frequently as majors shift mainline flying back to high density seating narrow bodies. Is this not what the essence of the Delta TA scope section is about? Could it be the very same issue our JNC is grappling with now?
Things have a funny way of falling into place suddenly in this business. Things are moving very fast now that this TA is public. Pilots have traditionally been rather lacking in their long term strategic thinking but we need to change that. We have to think farther than to the next contract and look at where the aircraft orders are going and why.
Again, I'm not for or against. I just think rather than get preoccupied with things right before our nose, we need to be better long term strategic thinkers for our careers sake. We need to support the JNC and our union as it maybe
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through a long term strategic, well thought out decision making process. We need to be more rational and less knee jerk with the blowhard forum antics.
The reality is people, this industry is moving ahead very quickly and it is picking up speed very suddenly. We're going to miss the train if were scrabbling around the stockyard looking for pennies in the dirt.
Fraternally,
DV