Originally Posted by Elvis90

Written in the DALPA Forum, thought it provided some good arguments, not written by me. It's in response to the available TA point paper, which I have just finished reading.

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Nearly all of your assumptions are worst-case scenario. When assessing risk, one has to assign a probability to the event(s.) Your whole premise hinges on your assessment that the negotiating environment from this day forward favors only the company. Not allowing that the environment could remain status quo or even improve for the pilots is flawed. You submit that the NC got the best deal available. If todays date was Dec. 31, 2012, that might be true. A TA reached 7 months early can reasonably signal these "tells" from management:

1. The 50 seat RJ is dead and RA is desperate to rid himself of these millstones. DCI carriers in or about to go into BK are unreliable feed partners. Tying the 717s to the TA appears to be a time-honored tradition to dangle tools before pilots that are coming on the property regardless.

2. RA believes that the negotiating environment going forward favors the pilots.

3. The contract at UAL could be more lucrative than this TA and RA wants to ink the deal prior to anyone getting a look at comparables.

4. RA's good working relationship with DALPA remains unchanged if the TA is rejected. An assumption that the MEC or NC willed be recalled is speculative, at best, given the ample time reamining to renegotiate.

5. A planned sell-down of payrates, triggering (in managements view) a rejection, allows time to sweeten the deal to levels already baked-in by the company.

6. The increasing likelihood that an Obama-appointed NMB would be unfavorable to the company should mediation be necessary.

These factors, taken singly or as a whole, would lead a seasoned negotiator to believe that the pilots should be able to extract a premium for agreeing early. No airline management has ever negotiated early believing themselves to be at a disadvantage.

The simple fact that all legacy pilot groups are still earning BK wages (with annual increases nominally representing COLA adjustments) dictates the aim of recapturing significant increases. Historically,as an average, legacy pilot wages have steadily declined since the late 70's-early 80's. An increase that has to allow for "black swan" events that will reduce any gains made in the inevitable give-backs the company will demand.

Critically, you fail to acknowledge that the pilots have significant leverage. With AA and UAL presently facing serious obstacles, RA sees a unique opportunity to put distance between DAL and the rest of their closest competitors. Delta pilots have a unique opportunity to realize this and gain maximum sustainable ground.

No one seriously expects full restoration, but to agree early to a mediocre contract would be to ignore basic factual conclusions. It would also be serious miscalculation to believe that Delta pilots don't realize this TA is more than just dollar numbers. It demands management to fully recognize past sacrifices and make good on their promise to run a world-class airline with a world-class contract.