Originally Posted by
JungleBus
Of course. However, he is saying there's not nearly the protection you think there is in that language when the snapshot takes place 1.5 years from now. A whole lot of DC9s, MD80s, and even older 757s could be parked by then. There is historical precedent.
If that happens you won't have to worry about your "soon" flow rights to the TA that you're arguing against. You can do your own math, but if management executes its business plan there will be 150+ fewer DCI aircraft. At 10 pilots per aircraft that's over 1500 jobs. If mainline doesn't grow and the block hour ratio kicks in, that number would only increase as more DCI aircraft are parked/underutilized.
The TA ratio is 1.56 mainline block hours to 1 DCI block hour if all 70 jets get delivered (and they only get that if all 88 B717's come). The ratio is currently 1.19-1. Make all the a/c deliveries on mainline purely replacement, and DCI will get much smaller than an equivalent 450 a/c.
There aren't a whole lot of DC-9's left (20?), but I expect there will be quite a few older 757 and A320 parked. Through 2015 we're scheduled to take 88 B717, 25 MD-90 added in service and 60 new 737-900. That's 173 aircraft in 3 1/2 years. When you factor in the DCI jets being parked and the block hour ratio, a lot more Delta flying will be done by Delta pilots.
For a guy worried about flow, that's a good thing.