Originally Posted by
alfaromeo
Math Problem for the Day (I hope newk has recovered from his analysis of the staffing formula)
Delta currently flies about 3,600,000 domestic block hours per year (combined mainline + DCI).
- Our current share of those block hours is 53.9%
- Under the TA, if Delta purchases the extra 70 76 seat jets the minimum share of our block hours rises to 60.9%. Calculate the difference between our current share and our minimum new share.
- Divide that difference by 12 to get the monthly block hours.
- Multiply that number by 2 because we have two pilots per domestic cockpit.
- Divide by 60 whcih is what our block hours per pilot will be in the future.
- Tell me how many additional pilot jobs at mainline that this creates
- Now contemplate that with a hard cap on DCI fleet, where does all additonal system capacity growth have to go after that.
Mr. JungleBus claims that they can buy the 76 seaters and then dump mainline aircraft. How can they do that and still increase the mainline share of block hours? That is why there is the ratio built in, and it is a very powerful ratio that you will never see again under a new negotiation. Management felt like we took their children when this was negotiated. Block hours are the core of pilot jobs, the number of aircraft required to create those block hours are basically fixed by the average daily ute rate of aircraft.
Bonus question: Under Delta's business plan our share of block hours will rise to 64% (remember DCI fleet is capped). Redo the above calculations and tell me how many jobs that creates at mainline.
PICK ME! PICK ME! I'm back after family night and falling asleep on my daughters floor again.
So I have my answer after doing your math question, but I have a question that changes every calculation.
What will the total block hours be after we transition to 100 new 739s, 88 new 717s, 125 50 seaters and 325 large regional jets?
Seems as if everything is no neutral here. We add 100 739s but they're all replacement jets. We add 100 717s but the ASMs are supposed to stay the same.
So best guess? Because I have a table that's pretty darn wide.
Now if every 739 and 717 was growth and we only parked the DC-9s and the 763s but nothing else (as in the 739 wasn't all that much of a replacement jet) we'd be rolling in hiring over a period of a couple of years beginning 2013 or 2014.
As long as this TA doesn't kill the staffing requirement. But our block hours would have to increase all things being equal.
But if the block hours have to remain neutral at 3.6M then we have to reduce the mainline fleet.
I say that we take that hit given the age of our jets compared to the age of those RJs all sitting on long term leases. And given that the CRJ-900 CASM is mainline like or better, it seems they wouldn't park those things.
We would still need pilots to do that though.
But this is the kicker. If they decide to drop down to that 1.56 ratio (and Lord forbid ever be granted relief on it) with a neutral 3.6M hours and RJ hours remaining unchanged, we'd be stuck in neutral on hiring at best.
So it depends on where that total block hours is in years to come.