PICK ME! PICK ME! I'm back after family night and falling asleep on my daughters floor again.
So I have my answer after doing your math question, but I have a question that changes every calculation.
What will the total block hours be after we transition to 100 new 739s, 88 new 717s, 125 50 seaters and 325 large regional jets?
Seems as if everything is no neutral here. We add 100 739s but they're all replacement jets. We add 100 717s but the ASMs are supposed to stay the same.
So best guess? Because I have a table that's pretty darn wide.
Now if every 739 and 717 was growth and we only parked the DC-9s and the 763s but nothing else (as in the 739 wasn't all that much of a replacement jet) we'd be rolling in hiring over a period of a couple of years beginning 2013 or 2014.
As long as this TA doesn't kill the staffing requirement. But our block hours would have to increase all things being equal.
But if the block hours have to remain neutral at 3.6M then we have to reduce the mainline fleet.
I say that we take that hit given the age of our jets compared to the age of those RJs all sitting on long term leases. And given that the CRJ-900 CASM is mainline like or better, it seems they wouldn't park those things.
We would still need pilots to do that though.
But this is the kicker. If they decide to drop down to that 1.56 ratio (and Lord forbid ever be granted relief on it) with a neutral 3.6M hours and RJ hours remaining unchanged, we'd be stuck in neutral on hiring at best.
So it depends on where that total block hours is in years to come.