Originally Posted by
georgetg
FlightOps RJ math for the TA:
DCI operates 598 regional jets.
Under the TA DCI would be capped at a total of 450 jets.
Overall reduction of 148 regional jets.
For reference: between
2010 and 2012 the Comair CRJ-200 fleet was reduced by 53 jets
Pinnacle has 142 CRJ-200 in it's fleet and is in BK. The bankruptcy process alone will probably significantly reduce that number should Pinnacle emerge. Pinnacle going TU could by itself potentially achieve the same reduction of the TA without increasing the number of 51+ seat jets.
There are natural forces at work that will achieve what the TA seeks to do anyways.
George
Those CMR fleet changes resulted in substantial charges to Delta for early termination...the same type of charges Delta hopes to avoid while shifting flying back to mainline. And, it was done at the only wholly owned subsidiary, where there's more flexibility to park those aircraft. CMR only has 30 left flying.
As to PCL, you may want to reread the DIP financing documents from the bankruptcy court. They are rejecting a CPA for 16 CRJ-900's under the DCI banner and all their turboprop flying as unprofitable. They are affirming their 141 CRJ-200 contract as profitable.
If they (PCL) liquidate, Delta has the financial obligations for those 141 CRJ-200's, they don't just go away.
You are right, there is a natural attrition to CRJ-200's. Without contract renegotiations with the DCI carriers it lasts 5 years longer than contemplated in this TA. Management has alternatives to get to many of the 50 seaters, but it takes longer and is much more expensive. The excess DCI capacity (above the business plan) caused by too many 50 seaters is flying that would not return to mainline.