Ok, lets see:
The first date that the company needs to be in compliance with these ratios is Jan 15, 2015, a little over three years from now.
Unlike what TO stated in his letter from the chairman on March 21, the ratios don't come into play unless 76-seat jets are added. 1.D.9.b cell 9.
And as you correctly point out unlike anything we have had in our PWA before there is the "in the event a circumstance over which the Company does not have control" language tha is so vague it covers just about anything.
Let's do some Block-hour math.
We'll use
Alfa's numbers and real figures:
3.6M block-hours annually
53.9% mainline share of block hours
1.94M mainline block hours or MBH
1.66M DCI block hours or DBH
Ratio 1.17 MBH to 1 DBH
That makes the ratio 1.17:1 (close to the figure provided by slowplay)
Add 70 76-seat RJs to DCI, a commensurate amount of 717s to mainline and fast forward to Jan 1 2015, the first time Delta needs to be in compliance.
First Example: DCI block hours reduced by 25%
(a 25% reduction in block hours would be proportional to reducing DCI from 600 aircraft to 450)
1.66M DCI block hours minus 25% (0.415M) equals 1.245M block hours
The final ratio is 1.56
1.245M x 1.56 = 1.94M mainline block hours required on Jan 1, 2015
Lets tally it up:
- Add 88 717 jets at mainline
- Add 70 76-seat jets at DCI
- Cut the DCI fleet to 450 jets
- Cut DCI block hours by 25%
So how many more pilots required to fly 1.94M block hours in 2015 vs 1.94M block hours now? Zero (0)
There is no requirement for any additional Delta pilots if DCI is cut by 25% and we apply the minimum block-hour ratios in Section 1.D.9. from the TA.
Second Example: DCI block hours reduced by 13%
1.66M DCI block hours minus 15% (0.25M) equals 1.41M block hours
The final ratio is 1.56
1.44M x 1.56 = 2.20M mainline block hours required on Jan 1, 2015
That's an additional 0.26M block hours or a 13% gain.
Lets plug that into Alfas formula:
The block hour increase is 0.26M or 260K annually.
Divide by 12 to get per month: 260K /12 = 21.667 hours/month
Divide 21.667/2 for each seat, A and B = 10,833
Divide 10,833 by 60 = 181 pilots (60 hrs/month is the staffing formula)
Lets tally it up:
- Add 88 717 jets at mainline
- Add 70 76-seat jets at DCI
- Cut the DCI fleet to 450 jets
- Cut DCI block hours by 15%
And we get a block hour formula that will lock in 181 new pilot positions or just over two pilots per 717...
Final Example: DCI block hours not reduced (same DCI block hours in 2015 as now)
1.66M DCI block hours
The final ratio is 1.56
1.66 x 1.56 = 2.59 mainline block hours required on Jan 1, 2015
That's an additional 0.65M block hours or a 33% gain.
Lets plug that into Alfas formula:
The block hour increase is 0.65M or 650K annually.
Divide by 12 to get per month: 650K /12 = 54,167 hours/month
Divide 54,167/2 for each seat, A and B = 27,083
Divide 27,083 by 60 = 451 pilots (60 hrs/month is the staffing formula)
Lets tally it up:
- Add 88 717 jets at mainline
- Add 70 76-seat jets at DCI
- Cut the DCI fleet to 450 jets
- Maintain current DCI block hours
If we don't cut DCI block hours at all but give them more 76-seat jets, the formula in Section 1.D.9 will require 451 additional mainline pilots, or five pilots per 717.
Not reducing block hours at DCI means same number of DCI pilots flying new 76-seat jets. They will be producing more ASMs for every block hour and at a lower cost.
Capacity would have been gained at DCI if the block hours stay the same as now because there would be more large 76-seat jet flying the hours compared to now.
Final Verdict:
Based on the proposed ratios for aircraft and the block-hour limits proposed in Section 1.D.9 the Delta pilots stand most to gain from the TA if we give more 76-seat jets to DCI and don't reduce the DCI block hours.
Unfortunately because the relationship is expressed as a ratio, cutting DCI hurts growth at mainline.
Finally while the new block-hour ratios are a welcome addition to the PWA, their protection is highly overstated and with just five pilots per new 717 doesn't even come close to actual staffing needs. If Delta staffed the 717 with five crews per aircraft, the block-hour protection wouldn't cover the first officer positions before requiring a reduction in DCI flying.
Cheers
George