Originally Posted by
flybywire44
In 3 years from today I predict that the rest rules & 65 retirements will have the regionals scrambling for pilots. RAA and IATA will then start lobbying for ab initio programs.
ok I don't know why I am even attempting to answer this...
How many pilots does an airline need?.... This is always a different answer for every airline. For the most part every airline staffs based on ASM or in more basic terms capacity. In general airlines have staffing model that takes into account the cba of the pilot groups, rest regulations that effect their individual schedules, and training and transitions for pilots moving to different fleet types through the airline.
What happens when a major airlines needs to hire?... They look to the regionals, and the military for the most part. To be hired you generaly need pic turbine and an ATP. Once those they have exausted pic turbine applicants they will the look to turbine pilots of any source... If all of those sources are exausted I don't know what the next step will be.
The more likely scenerio: capacity reductions continue and a regulated supply of pilots will begin to slowly trickle to the majors. Eventually there will be a shortage at the regional level. This will likely come just as massive regional flying reductions begin. You can see Delta has already committed to reducing regional flying. This will continue at all regionals. My guess is if they ever have a situation where demand is more then supply they will simply reduce frequency and increase equipment size.
It is true that there will be a need for pilots, there will be times when pilots are in demand, and there will likely be some contractual gains do to this need. Will they cancel large ammounts of flights becuase of lack of crews? I'm abosulutely sure they wont. There is plenty of pilots in this country, only a few of them choose to work for low paying regionals.