I'd say Jamie Baker knows what the hedges are. Here's his profit outlook, even with hedges...
I think people are going to be shocked at 2Q profits as well as 2012 forecasts (which are announced 2 weeks after the TA implementation date).
The Associated Press: Airlines catch a break on fuel, shares rising.
Airlines catch a break on fuel, shares rising
(AP) – 5 days ago*
NEW YORK (AP) — Airline stocks rose on Thursday after a J.P. Morgan analyst raised his estimates of the companies' future profits because of the recent drop in jet fuel prices.
The Amex airlines index rose 2.3 percent in midday trading. Many individual airline stocks rose even more sharply, led by a nearly 10 percent gain for US Airways Group Inc.
The Gulf Coast spot market price for a gallon of jet fuel has fallen about 12 percent in the past three weeks to $2.88 per gallon, according to government figures. It was more than $3.30 per gallon in February.
J.P. Morgan analyst Jamie Baker estimated that the pullback of about 40 cents per gallon would create an annual "windfall" of $5.5 billion for the airlines, a savings that had not been factored into most forecasts of airline profits. Meanwhile air travel demand, which affects the carriers' revenue, appeared to be holding up, he said.
Baker raised his estimates of 2012 profit and issued 2013 forecasts above the consensus view of other analysts for six airlines: United, Delta, US Airways, Alaska Air and discounters Southwest and JetBlue. The increase in his 2012 projections ranged from 33 percent for US Airways to 2 percent for Alaska Air.
The analyst said airlines are better prepared to handle oil price shocks than in the past because there are fewer airlines, they're making money from extra fees, and management is focused more on profit than gaining market share.