Originally Posted by DAL4EVER

I've sat on the sidelines as an observer for a while. But I just want to interject some thoughts that I'm concerned about.

We all know the Delta/NWA pilots gave. We gave to the tune of 50% during the 2004-2007 timeframe. We gave on the seniority list with outsourcing. Prior to 9/11/01, the combined DAL/NWA list was north of 17000. Today, nearly 11 years later, I'm still not at my original hire number at Delta. We lost nearly 5,000 jobs to outsourcing. There's a dollar figure there. Billions saved due to our outsourcing. There are dollar figures on the LOA's we've signed. There's real dollar figures in frozen or terminated pensions. And now, there's potential dollar figures we give by saving the company money on major overhauls of the CRJ-200s. The number I've heard is somewhere near $1.5 billion.

$1.5 billion. If true, what's our reward for that. If we were able to achieve 25% of that number for the pilot group that number is $375 million. Divided by 12,000 pilots, that's $31,200/ pilot. Divided by 860 hours per year of flying that would be $36/hour. Divided by the three year contract, that would be an average of $12/hour/pilot. Is that factored at all into our new rates? That's real, hard money DAL is not throwing out on an outdated, uncompetitive airplane. It's only achieved by our TA and relaxation of the additional 76 seaters. While I can see merit long term towards getting rid of the 50 seat capacity and capping and reducing the RJ numbers I want to know we are getting a reward for that. That's our leverage!

The 717s are not carrots. Its a stick and a carrot. The stick is refusal of this TA lands us in no man's land. The carrot is more movement for the '97-'08 guys. But let's not for a moment lose sight of the fact that this is a business decision. Glen Hauenstein and Bob Cortelyou have been foaming at the mouth for a 100 seater. They are getting them. They will be here no matter what. This makes good business sense for us and Glen and Co. will find a way to maximize their revenue potential. An agreement with us is not the reason this plane is coming to our property. Its a convenient association, but its not the reason. This airplane will only come because GH knows he will make a killing with it and no other Legacy carrier could fit it into their fleet.

Finally, I want to point out my beef with the payrates. My father-in-law used to be on the Fed Reserve. He's currently CEO of a bank. We were visiting with him last month and I brought up we were in negotiations with the company. He said that's good and that we need to be thinking long term with regards to our pay. He said the only way out of our debt crisis is through inflation. The inflation needed to bring us under control would mean we would need to make double what we are now in ten years just to enjoy the lifestyle we have now. That means on MD-88 FO 12 year pay at $120k, I would need to be making $240k in 2022 to have the same relative lifestyle. That pegs inflation at around 7%/ year which is around the corner. That's what we need to average to not see a relative pay cut. That means we need at least 21% on this contract not to be worse off in 3 years than we are now. Since we are at 18.5% that means effectively we will be taking a 3% paycut on this deal if his numbers are correct. Given that he's a player in the banking industry and has real insider contacts I have no reason to doubt him.

If we fail to get that, we will need to do that much better on successive contracts. But what is our leverage? Our leverage is Scope and future acquisitions. I firmly believe this industry will have realized the final rounds of acquisitions over the next five years. After that, what will our leverage be? I can't answer that but I want us to capitalize now to the best of our abillity based on what our leverage is.

Please continue to vet this deal out. Richard is to smart a guy not to have a plan B, C, D, etc. What is our Plan B, C? He will not allow his leverage as CEO of the only successfully merged airline to fall just because we quibbled over small %. That small number to a $35 billion company is huge to a pilot group.

Anyways, off to bed. Good luck guys!

DAL