Really you get two options here on how you want to see the 717 deal.
Option 1, it's pure growth. We hire almost 900 pilots (or take on 900 FL pilots) and we create DCI 450/325. The MBH : DBH ratios go from near 1.17 to 1.78 and we go from 53.9% of the consolidated flying to 64% of it.
Option 2, no such thing as pure growth at DAL.
Option 1 would create an increase in domestic ASMs, not a decrease. We decreased last year 1% from 2010, our fleet is 6% smaller than it was in 2008 at the merger. So why increase?
So if you believe in status quo and see this TA as nothing but status quo, well DCI 450/325 is not going to decrease. So we need to do it at mainline.
But by how much? If we decreases 1% from 2010 to 2011 on ASMs, is that the trend or would the company say 2% or 3% or higher is okay as we go to DCI 450/325? I don't know.
But if we decrease off this TA it will probably come from the 88 since the 739 will be taking out the 757, 767 and 320 on a 1:1 basis anyways. The 717/CRJ900 tag team on mainline aircraft is not as clear cut though as the 739's.
But all we need to do to be ratio and nearly ASM compliant is park 82 MD88s instead of all of the MD88s. The 717s won't make up for the missing seats but 32 CRJ-900s will. Use the other 38 for DCI replacement I guess.
I'll show
my math in a moment.