Originally Posted by
Bucking Bar
FTB,
Good spread sheet.
So you worst case assumes that the 1.25 mainline jet to new 76 seat jet acquisition language in 1 46 f is entirely used for fleet replacement to draw down existing aircraft, while also drawing down to 125 50 seaters ... could happen I guess. Your assumptions imply you hate the MD88 more than I do.
What does the model look like if the 717's and 739's are used to trigger the 3 to 1 language?Good analysis.
Well, the numbers can be anything. If I just put in the 3:1 trigger to option D we'd need 20 mainline airplanes to have 0% ASM growth.
To keep things fair, I need a -1% ASM YOY growth. I can do that, but I can also do that cutting out 120 CRJ-200s since we know those are uneconomical. That'd give you DCI 479/255 instead of 450/325. It's all about the ASSumption and given the TA doesn't require growth, you can go a lot of ways. I tend to believe DCI 450/325 will not be shrunken though so to get a 1% or 2% decline in YOY ASMs I had to take something out, the 88. I guess I could take out 319s too?
Anyways, I'll post it for you in a bit but 3:1 ratio is a 14 aircraft mainline gain and 150ish pilots, and I kept 50 MD88s of the 117... for old times sake. Gave me a -1% YOY ASM change.