Originally Posted by
spudskier
You're looking to past precedents... for what we're about to experience, there has never been anything like it.In the next three years alone, more people will retire at JUST the legacy carriers than there are pilots at the new combined XJT. Unprecedented times call for unprecedented measures. Not saying that I necessarily believe that any airline will buy another pilot group, but some unorthodox methods will surely be used.
It's gonna be a crazy ride
Fair enough, but shouldn't we be talking about how many legacy retirements there are going to be relative to the size of the pilot groups for the regionals in total? In other words, it's impressive that upwards of 3000 legacy major captains will be retiring over three years, but there are almost 3000 pilots at new jet. There are 3000+ at Skywest. There are thousands more at the rest. Will the movement be as fast as you think? I don't know. Mabye, maybe not. Trends away from smaller regional aircraft will reduce overall pilot demands. New rest rules and ATP requirements will increase it.
You are right about one thing; it will be a crazy ride. I'm just not sure it will be a good one for all.