Originally Posted by
drrhythm2
Fair enough, but shouldn't we be talking about how many legacy retirements there are going to be relative to the size of the pilot groups for the regionals in total? In other words, it's impressive that upwards of 3000 legacy major captains will be retiring over three years, but there are almost 3000 pilots at new jet. There are 3000+ at Skywest. There are thousands more at the rest. Will the movement be as fast as you think? I don't know. Mabye, maybe not. Trends away from smaller regional aircraft will reduce overall pilot demands. New rest rules and ATP requirements will increase it.
You are right about one thing; it will be a crazy ride. I'm just not sure it will be a good one for all.
I understand the gist of your ideas... just for reference, here are some specific numbers by carrier (Numbers are about 3 months old and do NOT account for recent retirements, deaths, medical outs, etc...)
Between
2013 and
2015 here are retirements:
Southwest-379
AirTran-50
American-326
Delta-432
United-1236
US Air-654
Alaska-85
FedEx-412
(I don't have numbers for Jet Blue, Allegiant, Virgin America, etc...)
TOTAL: 3574
That's just within three years
There are only 4419 pilots at the new XJet combined... lets say VERY conservatively that the top 25% aren't going to leave (too old, don't want to start over, too much of a salary loss, etc...) That leaves approximately 3314. For the next year and a half, there are several hundred who will not meet ATP mins (1500) and for an even longer period of time, will not meet mins for Delta, UAL, etc...
Let's say the legacy carriers DO hire one for one to replace outgoing retirees... 3574 over 3 years and 6730 (total) over 5 years will decimate the regionals. So yes, I do see movement in a big way.
Just for perspective,
6730 is ALL pilots from the
New XJet, GoJets, Compass, CommutAir, Air Wisconsin, PSA, and a few from Eagle 
COMBINED
Food for thought