Originally Posted by
Grumble
There will always be ATP holding candidates out there, the question is will they leave whatever job they're at to sling gear on an RJ?
1500 hours isn't an insurmountable obstacle. In the late 90's you couldnt get a phone call from ACA or ASA with less than 2K TT.
Same at my company. But a lot of the jobs that people took to build those 2000 hours don't exist anymore. Check flying? Mostly a thing of the past. Freight? A lot of single-engine Caravan jobs with lifers because they're not bad jobs.
The irony of this situation is that there were times when majors were hiring people with wet commercial certificates and I am personally aware of two pilots who were hired at AA and Northwest Orient with private certificates back in the late '60s and early '70s. United used to do the same thing.
I agree though that things will get interesting. And I stand by what I said, the industry will not produce as many pilots as are going to be forced out by retirement starting in December. The numbers are huge and there is no way the training and certifying of ATPs is going to keep up with that number.
We'll see what happens!