Originally Posted by
TheManager
I understand.
I just see it differently.
Doug Parker just valued their pilots at AMR/LCC to us with his tender offer for AMR.
Smisek was wetting his pants BEFORE our TA was released to us with his proposal to pay UCAL the same.
Fact is , this TA does not match SWA pay for F/O's ever. Capts do not match until 2015 when SWA likely will have exceeded again with a new contract. FedEx, UPS, AF/KLM/ Not even close.
Then there are the downside protections that are missing, scope issues, etc. We have all been over it many, many times before.
I believe the leverage exists only now to get this deal fixed, tweaked, what ever anyone wants to call it. If we don't utilize it, it will be gone forever.
The leverage of airlines needing pilots in three years is not nearly as powerful as the leverage we have today. However, that leverage will still be there 3 years from now. This won't.
I hear you. I also understand it differently. Parker will do ANYTHING to merge with ANYONE. HE NEEDS IT. AMR is the only one left that can give him size and scope to compete. He learned something with the DAL BK, and that was to go for the other side's labor, and get them onboard. AA labor doesn't want to get more cuts, because they never got any gains in the 5 years of asking, so cuts now would be really deep, a lot lower than the rest of us. So, when Parker comes along and says the cuts won't have to be deep, along with a 7 year fence (to keep out East guys, most will retire within the next 7 years), they were game to do it. It will be interesting to see how Parker would do it, since it would be very expensive initially. He hasn't given his USAir people a raise yet, and the AA guys haven't seen anything forever either. Then add the other employee groups to the mix. It will be VERY expensive.
Same with Smisek. Look at UAL's current rates. My buddy on the 320B at UAL makes $94 an hour (been there 14 years), and flies lines that are close to 95 hours (with credit). His trips are sometimes awful, with weird credit times etc. (terrible work rules) Just bringing up the pay to meet DL's if this TA becomes reality will cost MILLIONS, and then add up the cost of all of the terrible work rule changes. MORE MONEY. A LOT. Add that to CAL's terrible work rules, and I don't think Smisek will be jumping up for joy. He will want to stretch it out as long as he can, because it will dwarf what he is currently paying. And that is just for the pilots.
As far as meeting what SWA FOs make, remember we have different size planes. Are you talking about 737 pay? I know they are coming up on new contract talks soon over there at SWA, but they haven't had the best merger with Airtran, and they haven't been as profitable as years past. They are becoming a legacy, with employees that are adding up in age and longevity. Not all newhires anymore at the bottom scales. They just deferred 30 737-800s for a couple years, wanting to keep an extra $1 billion in their pockets and not have consistant losses, which maybe they are expecting? Will they want to give that extra $1 billion to their pilots in this new contract? I doubt it. As far as pay comparisions with SWA, they have to match their 401K funds to get anything. If they want a 7% match from their company, they have to pull out their own money (7% worth), to get the match. Not at Delta. You get 14% now (15% in 2014) of what ever you made that month, without yourself adding a dime. Yes, the pensions were lost, so that tries to make up for that for those of us that were around for that. But for new guys at Delta, that is a great deal. You don't have to add anything yourself, and Delta puts 14% in the funds of your choice. If you make $10K in one month, in reality you are getting $11,400. ($1,400 into your DC fund, and then you can add more if you like to your own 401K). That is pretty good, and something Southwest doesn't offer. Also, you need a type rating on the 737 there to qualify. If you don't already have one, you need to pay for it on your own. (unless you are an Airtran guy moving over)
When you talk about the leverage we have today, can you tell me what it is? Is it a hunch? What is around the corner? If you don't know exactly, then it might not be leverage. Maybe there is a plan A, and a plan B. If we get this done now, then management knows our costs for 3 years, and can go along with XYZ. Plan B may be the TA doesn't pass, they won't give extra pay to the pilots, and with those funds that they would have used to do that, they will now do ABC..... You just never know. It's a gamble, and an almost 20% raise in 3 years with improvements in many areas and caps and ratios for scope just seems like a pretty good deal.