Personally, I'm having a hard time with the decision. Getting over the initial sticker shock is tough. I thought we deserved much more, but deserved is such a subjective concept. Nobody outside of our pilot group cares about what we used to earn or what we think we are worth.
Do the math. I did, and with very conservative assumptions, this agreement gets me an additional 98,000 dollars in pay and DC by the end of 2015 vs. status quo. I assumed that I would remain on reserve and not upgrade, that reserve guarantee would average 75 hours, that I would never break guarantee, and that I would not get bumped out of my current seat. Not getting bumped is probably my weakest assumption. I didn't factor in the increase in training pay or vacation, because it's not a particularly significant amount.
View that info vs some real world financial data. The financial press is reporting that the average wage increase in 2013 will be 3%, which is up from 2.9% this year. Not that it really matters, but the military is getting a 1.7% raise next year. Look at the trends for the economy. I'm not intending to sell fear here, just a realistic view of the economy. But seriously, what are our chances to do better in continued negotiations, and can we do it fast enough (or get enough retro pay) to make up for what we lose if we turn this down?
Sure, there's much more to the agreement than money. I hate the additional 76 seat jets, but overall I think we have some good scope language improvements, despite all the "what-if ing" going on here. As a reserve guy, I see the reserve changes as positive. I really hate the current 70 hour guarantee, and don't mind working a little more to bump it up.
So, bottom line, are you a gambler? I play a little black-jack on my Vegas layovers. Every once in a while I'll even double-down on a $20 bet when I'm feelin' lucky and have had a few too many free cocktails. But even on my wildest Vegas weekend I've never bet 98,000.