This post illustrates the new dynamic at play in this vote.
This will be the first contract where senior Delta pilots no longer have a DB pension to protect.

In the past, a large number of senior captains could always be counted on to vote yes on any TA that would avoid a strike. They only had a few years to go before starting to collect retirement checks and they wanted no disruptions or harm to the company. They were totally risk averse because of the defined benefit. That factor has been eliminated.

As Timbo said earlier in the thread - this TA does almost nothing for senior widebody captains. The meager pay raises and the paltry 1% bump in DC will have little effect on their retirements. Plus the new work rules will only mean they have to work more hours per month in their final years.

A lot more of those previously automatic yes voters may be tempted to roll the dice and vote no this time.