Some background: PCL provides about 4.5% of Delta's system capacity and 1/3 of DCI capacity. In general, PCL flies the newest and most "desirable" CRJ-200 in DCI's fleet. These are the ones Delta would prefer to retain, and the new ASA has 140 under contract.
You might want to look at the bankruptcy court documents to see if what you heard is correct. It's all in the DIP (Exhibit E, which was modified by a sealed document at DIP approval). The PCL CRJ-200 was extended until lease/financing expiration (from 12/31/17 and now at individual dates through 2022). There are a bunch of other provisions in there. Delta does have the right to replace 16 CRJ-200 aircraft under PCL contract one for one with 70+ seat aircraft. Strange that PCL is rejecting 16 CRJ-900. Dot?
Chatauqua does have a lease rejection clause, it's in the Delta 10-K under Notes. Even though Comair is owned by Delta, the CRJ-200 in its fleet have ownership costs even if they're parked. The only savings are DCI ASA costs.
Your timeline leaves a big problem for Delta. PCL is in bankruptcy. If they quit operating Delta loses 4.5% of its capacity. No plan of reorganization will be approved by the court that doesn't leave PCL a survivable entity (at least on paper). The rest of the creditors (including a deceased Colgan family estate, ALPA and the Steelworkers) wouldn't sit around and let Delta carve up the PCL carcass just for itself. They would fare better in a liquidation. That's their nuke aimed at Delta...mutual assured destruction (PCL annihilated as you describe, Delta unprofitable until it can recover the feed).
Next is a replacement aircraft timing problem. The C series is a paper airplane that isn't proposed to be in revenue service until 2015/6 (remember the 787 delay). In your scenario Delta needs lift tomorrow. The first 717 doesn't show up until 2nd half 2013. They come at 3 per month after that. Again, you're talking about getting creditors to agree to immolate for Delta's benefit, and doing it over the next 2 years.
At least somebody is finally looking at potential management plan B/C/D/E should this TA go down and see the amount of leverage that's actually available. Unfortunately this scenario isn't remotely realistic, but there are several others that are real world possible. Dot?
