Sadly, what I predict, in the event of any shortage, is sadly, increased regional hiring and reduced "major" (or whatever they will be called then...) hiring. In other words, lets say yes a "shortage."
However the lack of talent will be in the RJ cockpits as majors downsize due to RJ feed. The RJ lines will need to hire, yes. The RJ cockpits today are not full of young spring chickens either. They will be retiring also.
The exception to this will be SWA however one has to wonder how much more they can actually expand. SWA is a great company and all that, but how many more flights does Lubbock need ? Lets me serious. I wonder how much expansion they can pull off in the next 10-20 yrs. Plus they have purposely hired all age brackets, contrary to AA's "average age 28" style of hiring (which is now biting them in the rear.). So it is anyones guess if a "shortage" will occur at SWA.
FedEx, UPS ? Who knows.
In other industries, a talent shortage is addressed by companies offering hiring incentives, recruiters going to campus and recruiting Juniors versus graduates (getting them early), and other things.
I am not going to hold my breath for that to happen at the airlines. When FedEx offers 10K "sign on bonus" to become an FO, or SWA HR person flies my wife and I to HQ and takes us to dinner and a NFL ball game, then yes, we have a pilot shortage.
Good discussion.
Whats the start date again ?
