Originally Posted by
SkyHigh
The 1500 hour rule has greater effects than just hiring minimums at the regionals like how are these new pilots supposed to get the time? In years past students outnumbered instructors by a great deal. Those days are gone now. Student starts and hobby pilot numbers are approaching a quarter of what they were in the 1970's while the number of CFI's has tripped to nearly 100,000.
By my guess it takes 20 or more students to produce 1000 hours of instruction given time in the log book. Those 20 students are then supposed to get a CFI to train 20 more? The numbers just don't work out. In the past a low time pilot had other options like pipeline patrol, flying skydivers, right seat in a check hauling operation, but those things are fading away as well.
Just how are new pilots supposed to get 1500 total time plus 50 hours of multi-engine PIC? Buy the time? Lie? My guess is that most of the 20 students who complete the commercial CFI hit and job market and quickly quit or get a job in a warehouse to pay the bills. Story over before it even gets started.
Skyhigh
I do agree 100% that new start (U.S) students are a lot lower than they have been in the past several years. One thing to consider though is the massive amount of students coming from overseas to train in the US where its many thousands cheaper than their home country. I feel it may be a little harder for low time pilots for a few years but it will work its way out. Passenger travel will only grow not shrink. There will be lulls (like the last 10+ years) but you can bet it will start climbing again. Oil is sitting at $78 right now and the airlines are going to be hedging heavily at these prices. Most of them have seen the light and making changes to support business in a $100+ oil market.