Originally Posted by
sflpilot
The FAA numbers do indicate much lower numbers of certificates being issued. There may still be enough pilots at least for the time being, but unless they shrink the combined U.S. fleet there may be some problems.
As I have mentioned before there is significant evidence that there are at least 30,000 to 60,000 commercial grade pilots who quit flying (or never really started) let their medicals lapse and are sitting on the sidelines. If conditions at the airlines were to improve tomorrow I am sure that many would get current medicals and go back to work.
Everyone is talking about a pilot shortage but forget that over the last 5 years there has been almost zero hiring at the majors. We have lost so much over the last few years that it will take a long time to get back to where we should be.
DAL is hiring again after a reduction in force. The new hires are replaceing pilots who
chose not to return.
Out on my college graduating class less than 10% are still flying. They could be easily be tempted back if the industry came even close to being worthwhile.
SKyHigh