I agree. They will try to avoid any large surpluses on the next couple of AE bids. The early outs will be the key. There is no way around it though, the work rule changes probably cost at least 300 jobs. Even if there are not surpluses, there will be that many fewer backfills.

Flame material --
I'd like to see a side letter that allows early outs out of seniority order. That would raise a firestorm in the 744A/777A categories but it would benefit the pilot group as a whole. I think you could sell it if it was closely monitored. Convince those 744A guys that they weren't going to be allowed to go anyway because of the training/operational constraints and let some extra guys go from lower categories even if they are junior to the 744/777 guys.