Originally Posted by
eaglefly
My opinion and point above exactly, i.e., whatever occurs, the big 3 are fairly close in NYC market share and if one of the other two take B6, they'll have to divvy up some to AA/U. Agreed about PHL and U's International stake there.
Now if say, SWA makles a play for JB...........well, then it gets interesting. SWA at JFK would be an odd thing, of course, but they may have no choice about not running away from ANY airport or market.
If DL or UA take B6, then they would have to divest such a large % of the JFK slots that it might not make sense. What is the point of buying B6 if you dont get the JFK presence? The only ones who could buy B6 without having to divest too much would be AA or WN.
I think WN would love to have the NYC presence that B6 does, but it offers much more value to an international carrier like AA. The int'l connecting pax could fuel serious growth for someone with a global presence.
Originally Posted by
tsquare
A recent presentation that I attended showed UAL with closer to 27% of the NY market, and DAL with 26%..
Numbers and statistics are only as good as their recency and accuracy though, so who knows what the current numbers are.
Regardless, I am not sure that DAL is really interested in JB. I don't KNOW that.. it is just a hunch. I would think we could grow the Caribbean organically if necessary, which is why I am not sure JB is in the sights. There are more slot controlled markets that DAL needs. JMHO.
My numbers were from 2011, and DL was just closing up the deal with U for the LGA slots, so I dont doubt your numbers as more current. I agree with you that DL wants to own NYC and the Caribbean as well, and they have plenty of slots/aircraft to do it themselves. Not to mention the DOT would require a massive divestiture of B6 slots in a takeover, which would almost certainly go to either AA or LCCs like WN/VX/F9/NK.