Originally Posted by
Death2Daleks
Yeah, but only 3000 ATPs, the new requirement to even get an airline job. 3000 new POTENTIAL hirees a year, and let's say a 1/4 of them are not really fit to be pilots. 2250 new pilots a year is pretty small, no?
Speaks to nothing about the shortage itself, and actually kind of admits it might be there...
The Boeing number says 69,000 pilots over 20 years. It sounds like a really big, insurmountable number. That's 3,450 pilots per year. Big deal. Like I said, we made 8,500 new commercial pilots in a BAD year. I didn't use ATP numbers because Age 65 has probably made that number artificially low. No retirement means no F/Os upgrading to Captain which will reduce the amount of ATPs created as some pilots get the ATP with the Captain checkride.
You are right...... There might be a pilot shortage in the future. There might not. I haven't a clue as I am unable to predict the future. There are too many moving parts to determine what future demand for pilots will be.