Originally Posted by
Sink r8
Timbo,
Except for a drunken orgy of RJ purcahsing, and a failed attempt to appease the gods of frequency by such geniuses as Allen and Mullen, airplanes have continued to get bigger in the industry. What you're describing are pre-merger fleets. What you're not looking at is the resumption of the normal evolution towards bigger airplanes, in a an environment where airlines are big enough to offer frequency AND economical (large) airplanes. And those airlines can also use an alliance partner to cover two city pairs, each with a bigger plane, by splitting them, rather than having two smaller airplanes each competing on both routes.
Take a look at the evolution of the 737, and you'll see virtually none bought the -600. Everything gets stretched (and I don't just mean for us ageing pilots), from the 767, to the 757, to the 787. I wouldn't be surprised if we get 777-300's. Even the 717 is an upgauging proposition.
Airlines are big enough that they don't have to sacrifice economics to assure frequency, and so we're going back to bigger. That's the trend LBP would have us fail to capitalize on. Just look at it in terms of MD-90's coming in to the 88 fleet, and adding seats on the 88: they served to bump up the 88 to 90 pay. How would you argue that under LBP? There would be no basis for it, since a pilot is a pilot, and a plane is a plane.
No LBP for me, thanks.
I guess it depends on how you define 'bigger'.
I see 737's replacing 757's and 767's (Domestic routes)
I see 787's eventually replacing 767ER's (a wash, size wise?) but maybe replacing 777's in 10 years, and 747's maybe sooner than that. The last I heard, the 787 is about the size of a 767ER, not the size of a 777 or 747.
I see the 717's as our only 'growth' airplane. Do we call that bigger? It is bigger than a 50 or 76 seat RJ, no doubt, but it's the smallest 'manline' airframe out there.
I don't see that as bigger, just more small narrow body flying with the 737's ((-900) and 717's.
I don't see Bigger coming any time soon, until we order and take delivery of something as big as the 777-300 and 747, I'm not holding my breath waiting for those. In the mean time, we will have pilots displaced off the 767/757 to the 737-900.