Originally Posted by rickair7777

No, I'm not way behind anything, I'm well plugged in into the UAV industry and the military operators.

This is not widespread use like the military. They have had significant airspace issues, and they do NOT operate freely in manned airspace. The only reason they are able to get the airspace they need to do this is because it's low altitude near the border...ie nobody wants to use that airspace except drug smugglers and federal agencies.




AOPA isn't trying to stop UAVs, they are just trying to keep various federal, state, and local agncies from permanently locking up civilian airspace for their own convenience.




There is a lot of INTEREST in UAVs but not a lot of practical means to de-conflict with civilian traffic (other than flat-out banning civilian traffic).
UAV Pipeline patrol has the same airspace issues, unless you fly the thing at 200'.

But you are WAY behind the big picture here...the fact that law enforcement can fly large, uncertified model airplanes in deserted US airspace does not mean unmanned airliners are around the corner...those military UAVs that law enforcement is so excited about have an approximately 50% NON-COMBAT loss rate! (CBP doesn't have a better track record than the military either) And they cost as much as a new RJ!

The real-hurdle is not the technology (most it exists) but rather the COST of building in the required redundancy and reliability to make for the LOSS of flexibility and adaptability incurred by removing human pilots. This will require mind-boggling up-front expense, and will require complete re-engineering of world-wide ATC systems and ground handling as well. Who's gonna pay for all of THAT (this is in the range of HUNDREDS of billions $). I'll give you a little hint...not the airlines.

The real challenge is cost and government. Even after all of the development, the airplanes themselves will be so expensive that pilots will probably be cheaper anyway!

The game-changing technology would be an adaptive artificial intelligence which could replace some of the flexibility that pilots bring to the table. But the catch-22 is certifying such a system...by it's very nature (adaptive) it will be very hard to fully predict what it will do in every situation! The FAA (or their foreign equivalents) is not going to readily sign off on that...

But in any event, you'll see it come at least 30 years in advance. When they start operating large (airliner size) unmanned cargo airplanes in US domestic airspace on a regular (not experimental basis) then you have about 30-50 years before they start doing the same with airliners. A few freight dogs might get caught short at the end of their career someday, but pax pilots will see it coming far enough out to steer your kids to medical school vice flight school.

Bottom Line: There are plenty of things to worry about in an aviation career, but this is not one of them if you are old enough to read this.