Originally Posted by
What
AMR is walking a tight rope right now, have to show enough progress to maintain the creditors from supporting US Airways but bad enough to get the contracts they seek. 95 million in quarterly profits, best revenue quarter ever!
From Yahoo stocks
Delta and United had nearly identical first-quarter revenue of around $8.5 billion American had $6.5 billion
Remember American is over 1/3 smaller than Delta and United. AMR has been outpacing the competition for over a QT
It will be interesting to see how those numbers come up for the second quarter, I am not certain that AMR has the judge in the bag, taking into account the contract Delta just signed. I hope this TA gets voted down
More then aware of what "ropes" Horton is walking. The creditors are FIRMLY on his side so long as he demonstrates he's in control of labor, especially the pilots. The best chance of derailing AMR and their tombstone plan is for labor to continue their rejection of the AMR management team. THAT is what MAY force the creditors to flee to Parker. Although the judge heavily favors the debtor (in this case AMR) in reorganization, he favors the interests of the creditors first. Since right now, there is no one else besides the debtor and the debtor has yet to demonstrate their hold on future costs is unraveling, the creditors will remain loyal and the judge will back the creditors directly and thus the debtor indirectly.
If the TA fails, I expect the judge to unseal his decision that is already made and it will be for abrogation. Then, I'd expect AMR to have no alternative to come back and try and get deals. They COULD just try and arrogantly rebuild the smaller AA they want to with no pilot contract, but that would freak out the banks that would be lending money for all these aircraft purchases. They'd be as nervous as a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs about commiting all that capital when the 2nd highest cost structure (labor costs) will likely cahnge in an unknown amount, turning the stand alone plan to dog****. In coming back to get deals, I expect AMR to ther start from the bottom up again (the 1113), hopefully realizing that they'll have to improve beyond the LBFO to realistically get any CBA with duration or the trying the other option (that is even more likely in my book) and that would be for both AMR and the APA to punt and agree to binding arbitration with the LBFO as the litmus. The APA has already thrown that concept out there and while AMR technically didn't agree, they didn't officially reject.
That would be one way to take the pesky pilots out of the equation, but whatever the plan, time is running out and whatever path occurs, it will have to be fairly quick. Of course, the pilots could always buckle at the testicles and ratify this flaming turd and that would be that for the next decade. That of course, is what AMR wants and they're pulling out all the stops to make that happpen.