Nobody knows ... The half trillion makes assumptions like an 8% return on invested capital, out of date mortality charts and does not account for the local government entities. I think a few economists are making informed guesses at around 3 Trillion.

Whatever the number is barely matters. It can't be fixed. The sooner it defaults the sooner we can build a more sustainable government.

I'm with Buzz, legalize and tax. Takes care of some of Mexico's problems to boot.