The current trend is reduction in capacity both at the majors and regional level..... Based on current economic data the economy is limping along with no real shot in the arm in sight to get it really rolling. Even if things do turn around economically in the next 18-24 months I expect the majors to hold capacity discipline in check. There would be some increase in flying but a lot of that could be absorbed from the fat most are carrying.

The wild card is retirements..... We are coming up on the 5 year change from 60 to 65 so we will start seeing retirements come into check. Delta has a large number of retirements coming by the big numbers don't hit for a while. AA has a senior pilot group but they may be swallowed by other fish and thus their pilots would add to the excess already being carried.

The pilot game is a cycle of boom and bust but the airlines are trying to level out this cycle as much as they can. I have heard for 30 years how there is a pilot shortage coming but alas one never transpires.