Originally Posted by
Rotor2prop
While I do agree with most of what your saying. I also think that their may never be a true shortage of pilots but one thing a lot people do not think about is how fast the rest of the world's air travel is growing. Never before has air travel been in such high demand in places like Africa, India, China, etc. Its hard for some Americans to imagine but we are a small speck of sand compared to the rest of the world by population. The world population is still growing at a rapid pace (including the US) and there is only so much capacity that can be cut before the number of people on the planet exceed capacity.
Just my .02
Additionally as airlines up gauge equipment size over the next decade (50's to 76's, 76's to 717's, etc etc) while there may be increases in total capacity in the US, the total number of pilots required will decrease (thus continuing the trend of making the industry more efficient). Look for global capacity to increase in developing areas of the world but US airlines will only be a small fraction of that growth.
So yes. While global air travel growth is forecast to grow wildly, very little will affect US airlines. Hence no pilot shortage at all, in spite of future retirements. However, a shortage a qualified AND quality applicants at the regional level is quite possible.