Originally Posted by
Geardownflaps30
Additionally as airlines up gauge equipment size over the next decade (50's to 76's, 76's to 717's, etc etc) while there may be increases in total capacity in the US, the total number of pilots required will decrease (thus continuing the trend of making the industry more efficient). Look for global capacity to increase in developing areas of the world but US airlines will only be a small fraction of that growth.
So yes. While global air travel growth is forecast to grow wildly, very little will affect US airlines. Hence no pilot shortage at all, in spite of future retirements. However, a shortage a qualified AND quality applicants at the regional level is quite possible.
Sure we will see a reduction of pilots needed due to airlines going to larger RJ type aircraft but in the grand scheme of things pilot demand will start to go up after about a 5 year adjustment period. Pilots leaving regionals to go to mainline will absorb some of these reductions quickly. The US airline capacity will grow again soon as long as we can stay out of a world war or something along those lines. The US population is growing at about 2.5 million people a year so capacity will have to increase so people can fly. Shortage? Probably not. Steady need of pilots? No doubt.