Originally Posted by
CAAC ATP
On a slightly different topic... I am always pondering, and who isn't, career progression based upon future attrition and growth. I would say the majority of captains I fly with think a junior pilot on the Delta Seniority List will have a fairly fruitful career. I agree with this statement so long as we remain the status quo. The industry is just too dynamic for that to happen which brings me to question a few items.
The contract granted the company a smaller pilot group through gained efficiencies and early retirements. This has probably delayed the requirement to hire pilots for a short period of time. With this new contract and future known retirements, I would think the company could easily predict and peg a date for when hiring must begin and yet they haven't. Why is this? The only scenario I can think of is the company is in the midst of further consolidation and therefore the staffing needs are completely unknown. Depending on the outcome of consolidation, the immediate need for pilots will be buffered, eliminated, or worse, reduced. ie. merging or acquiring a junior vs. senior pilot group. I'm wondering how the APCer's see these different consolidation scenarios unfolding and the impact on the bottom pilots of Delta's seniority list.
The company has provided many statements about hiring. Short term hiring this winter is predicated on the block hour plan which marketing has yet to release to flight ops. Once it is out then a decision to hire now or next year will be made. Once hiring starts flight ops expects it to continue long term.
Your thoughts on the contract are incorrect. We are shifting almost 1000 pilot jobs from DCI back to the mainline. The work rule changes will cost us somewhere in the around 125 to 150 jobs total. The give backs cost us 300 to 340 jobs but improvements in other areas picked up about 200 jobs. The early retirement program looks like it will come in around 230 pilots. The good news on the ER program is that it looks like it will be far more effective then DALPA thought. They had planned on 250 to 300 however thought most would be the 63 to 65 year old pilots. Those guys are staying and the majority of pilots leaving are 59 to 61 which is much better for the pilot group.
Hiring will come but its dependent on the block hour plan which falls back on the economy.