Originally Posted by
CAAC ATP
On a slightly different topic... I am always pondering, and who isn't, career progression based upon future attrition and growth. I would say the majority of captains I fly with think a junior pilot on the Delta Seniority List will have a fairly fruitful career. I agree with this statement so long as we remain the status quo. The industry is just too dynamic for that to happen which brings me to question a few items.
The contract granted the company a smaller pilot group through gained efficiencies and early retirements. This has probably delayed the requirement to hire pilots for a short period of time. With this new contract and future known retirements, I would think the company could easily predict and peg a date for when hiring must begin and yet they haven't. Why is this? The only scenario I can think of is the company is in the midst of further consolidation and therefore the staffing needs are completely unknown. Depending on the outcome of consolidation, the immediate need for pilots will be buffered, eliminated, or worse, reduced. ie. merging or acquiring a junior vs. senior pilot group. I'm wondering how the APCer's see these different consolidation scenarios unfolding and the impact on the bottom pilots of Delta's seniority list.
Sailingfun is correct on the numbers, but does not tell the whole story.
To sum up your question, you are asking; "Where is the bottom? When do things turn around? When do we hire?" The answer seems to be, "who knows."
Consolidation is a going to continue according to Delta's senior management. On our own, we see "Capacity reductions (as) leverage" to increase prices and make greater profits.
Management is not talking about merger scenarios, but if something like that should happen I'd expect a 40 to 60% reduction in whatever we acquire, or if we get acquired, out of our network. Northwest / Delta was about as painless a merger as could be achieved, yet we are still, what, a 25% smaller airline than our post bankruptcy footprint, which itself is reduced from our peak.
As Sailingfun points out, we are going to see a bump from 717 flying, as we recover some of what had been outsourced. But, aside from the approximately 400 Captains that will get back to their DC9 equivalent seat, there is not a lot of upward movement. Not that I'm complaining, the unity created by doing our own flying is important also.
My projections all had 2013 as the post merger turn around. Five years for some of us to get back to "status quo." That is not going to happen. Still, we have a lot of good things on the horizon:
- Atlanta terminal F finished
- JFK Terminal Expansion coming on line
- Up gauged LGA flying
- Perhaps an increase in Pacific flying
- Aircraft coming out of mod lines
- and slightly closer to the date the effective measurement period of the AF/KLM JV
- 717 / 737-900 arrivals
But, some other indicators I watch are showing a slow down in the US economy this fall and the network / marketing people who make these decisions for Delta have not said anything positive recently.
So ... who knows? Management seems very happy to run Delta with a smaller footprint, especially if they can extract more revenue from it.