Originally Posted by
Roadkill
^^^^^^^^^
This and also Free Bird's post.
11 years here and STILL seniority # is above what the company says it needs to run the airline. Bottom part of the list is one small TA efficiency away from another 5 year furlough. My analysis says our hiring through 2016 is taken care of by the new contract, and anything beyond that will likely be handled by some sort of merger/shrinkage. When the entire list stagnates for 5 years due to 65, it's way easy to talk rosy when you're sitting at the TOP of the world for those extra 5 years... things are different when you're at the bottom for an extra 5 years, especially right after more than 5 years furlough.
Can you post your analysis? Here is what is generally being put out. Negative work rules will cost us 300 to 340 pilots. Positive work rule changes will add back about 200 jobs. Net loss 100 to 140 jobs. RMA program netted 191 jobs. Transition of flying from DCI to the mainline will require about 1000 pilots to man entire 717 fleet. MD90 deliveries offset retirements of remaining DC9's. 737 deliveries are replacement aircraft for most 757 retirements. This is based on a zero growth fleet plan. The 717's are growth to the mainline but net neutral to the Delta system.
The company has the option to overhaul some 757's and retain them in the fleet and exercise options for addition 900ER's if the economy turns around. They can retire additional aircraft if the economy tanks. Widebody order due late fall or early winter. It will be a mostly replacement order with deliveries starting around 17. Again options for growth if things turn around.