Originally Posted by
What
We know that the judge is likely to grant he company's request to abrogate the contracts. But do you think that AMR will get another contract with APA if they have 200 E-190 being flown by regionals while the other legacies are limited to CRJ 900 and E-175. How many guys do you think will stick around working down to FAR and a hit on pay(loss of work rules). APA is likely to be better off from the events in the last few weeks. I believe the judge has set a hearing for Sep 4, from there we are likely to see instructions from the judge. This is going to cost AMR another month or so at least. The longer this happens the shorter AA runs on pilots and the closer we get to those 777-300 getting on property and creating a training bubble as senior guys get fed up and walk away. 400 pilots in the fall created a mess last year, AMR has it fresh on their minds. Listen to what Eagle fly says, if AMR makes it bad enough that guys just leave AMR is stuck! they won't be able to get people on property fast enough.
You raise an interesting premise. This is not flamebait, but rather a legitimate question. What makes you think the senior guys will be the ones to walk away? It is they that have the most to lose in that scenario. In the ruling, the judge stated that the average retirement is over $1 million. Average. That means some are worth more.. some less. It isn't hard to figure which ones are worth more. And as was also pointed out, the company offered.. to freeze, rather than terminate those pensions. So why would those senior guys walk away from that? Now if those pensions get terminated, you might have a point, but if there is still money in the bank.. why would they leave first of all, and second, where would they go?
Another question: Why is American running short on pilots? Is it due to temporary events like sick outs, or are guys quitting?
And if eagle's premise is valid.. not saying it is or isn't, and enough guys leave, my bet is that management would sell the remaining pieces to the highest bidder. His premise is that the pilots would force a fire sale, and ultimately a Chapter 7. All those 737 slots and the 777-300s you speak of are worth a lot of coin in that case, and the South America book is worth a small fortune. I get the burn it down feeling that is there, but all the forum bluster aside, what will be gained by going nuclear? Guys might feel better for a little while, but how long will that feeling last when you are looking to M R Rats for a job?
Again, the above is not intended in any way as flamebait. I am just trying to understand the thought processes that are going on.