Originally Posted by
What
We know that the judge is likely to grant he company's request to abrogate the contracts. But do you think that AMR will get another contract with APA if they have 200 E-190 being flown by regionals while the other legacies are limited to CRJ 900 and E-175. How many guys do you think will stick around working down to FAR and a hit on pay(loss of work rules). APA is likely to be better off from the events in the last few weeks. I believe the judge has set a hearing for Sep 4, from there we are likely to see instructions from the judge. This is going to cost AMR another month or so at least. The longer this happens the shorter AA runs on pilots and the closer we get to those 777-300 getting on property and creating a training bubble as senior guys get fed up and walk away. 400 pilots in the fall created a mess last year, AMR has it fresh on their minds. Listen to what Eagle fly says, if AMR makes it bad enough that guys just leave AMR is stuck! they won't be able to get people on property fast enough.
There's still several pathways for the ultimate resolution of this situation and really none of us can predict what pathway will result. Horton has claimed that a "merger decision" will be forthcoming within weeks which could be their rejection of anything while in BK, or IMO a deal with Parker for U or possibly a Jet Blue hook-up (maybe both !
). I think Horton is feeling greater pressure from the creditors to not tip over the apple cart in this process if one of his motivations is maximum payout for himself (which IMO IS one of his motivations). AMR is HARD UP to abrogate to at least 1113 provisions and there may be many reasons for this;
- You'll note that through all of this AMR has YET to place a single RJ replacement/expenasion order, which indicates risk-averse financiers are reluctant to commit to sitting on a volcano at this time, under these circumstances. Considering aircraft delivery times and ramp-up hiring/training, you'd think they would have moved already if they could and they are antsy to begin their POR which hasn't happened yet.
- Perhaps they feel that the best deal to save face and demonstrate to all that THEY are in control of their labor (especially their pilots) is to return to the table as the one with perceived leverage with AA pilots operating under "uncertainty and pain" with no contract ?
- One pathway out is an agreement between Horton, Parker, the creditors and the judge for a U merger within BK, but that would guarantee a minimum payout (stock and bonuses, etc.) upon exit for Horton and his team along with a transition period that lets Horton manage the situation until some point in the future when Parker takes over. If they can technically proclaim a merger while still in BK, then the CLA that the APA inked with Parker becomes the offical CBA for AA pilots which would defuse the AA pilot contract situation until the reorganization is complete and BK is exited. That CLA has terms that are WELL below those that would be at Delta or United in the future and thus beancounters and cash-dispensers alike would be satisfied with that outcome and the ball could begin rolling for all concerned.
- Perhaps Horton will announce a hook-up with Jet Blue and then use SLI issues as leverage and a fear-stick against AA pilots to capitulate to a substandard CBA ?
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Yes, I know JB management has made certain statements of their lack of interest in hook-ups, but that would be exactly what should be said if there was something in the works as opposed to the opposite, so statements like these are meaningless. Isn't it odd how AA has relinquished the Carribean, Boston and to a lessor degree JFK to JB so easily ?
Why would they do that ?
At any rate, I think AMR is now telling the creditors that the pilot labor end-game is near and to be patient just a bit longer. Likely, on Sept. 4, it seems Lane will have the boxes checked to grant AMR's abrogation request and then after that, I expect them to sit down with the APA and make a move.
What move, is the $64,000 question. As far as AA flying off the rails in the interim, tI agree that it depends on what level they begin a TRUE assault on the pilots (up to now, it's been abstract and not reality). If pilots are now forced to work days off, reassigned with impunity, etc., and watching their paychecks collapse in the process (along with NO pension contributions) and even perhaps token terminations, then many pilots will simply choose fight or flight as their lives will simply become unmanageable. Personally, I can't comprehend a management that would create such a situation and have those affected out there operating aircraft, but at any rate, EITHER of those possibilities are bad for all parties and I think flight will be the most likely, thus my prediction of increasing and uncontrollable attrition. It won't be a labor statement, simply (mostly) older men in their 50's and even 60's simply not able to exist like that and rationalizing other options with their lives. 777's and 737's may quite quickly have to be parked as any hiring/training would take 3-4 months per pilot to replace pilots who gave 0-2 weeks notice of retirement/resignation. You can see how that could get out-of-hand quickly. As it stands now, AA is very short in most statuses, begging for pilots to fly premium on days off. The Holiday season will be approaching and that would be a bad time to lose 3-500 pilots on short-notice. A situation like that may be looked upon as evidence of the apple cart indeed beginning its roll.
For all concerned, it is hoped that whatever moves and plays are imminent over the next weeks and months that stability be maintained so as to maximize a viable path out of this mess. This BK is now at the point where things HAVE TO BEGIN TO HAPPEN. Personally, I give it 50/50. No copout there, just no idea which way this mess (and it IS a mess) will go.