Originally Posted by
gloopy
Then less than 10% isn't really much of a carry, especially in small categories, especially when we still have a good bit of mandatory retirement movement in those fleets in the coming years. I was suprised to see how few age 64'ers took it. I think we had 85 mandatory outs for 2013 and only 20 something took this out? I bet several dozen of the remaining ones for 2013 are from the large WB fleets. Not only that, but ALPA says the average age to punch out is 62 or 63 anyway, so we will start to see more leave from later years next year as well.
Would they really run a displacement for what, 5-7% of relatively small categories, just in time to immediately post an AE to backfull the displacement? I don't think so, and if they don't, is it realy fair to call that slight buffer a carry?
They aren't flushing the tiny transient surplus because it makes no sense to do so. Not because we're sitting on a lot of fat and they are just trying to be nice about it.
Well look at it this way.
If the 757's are kept no, they will not, but if they are parked, they can staff the initial 739's with those bodies. Most likely from ATL.
With the work rule changes and the ability to hire for winter and not summer, we are able to flex the summer. That change allows DAL to hold when it comes to hiring. As for those pilots that are soon to be retired. They are gambling. Will the age get raised or not? Probably not, but the 35K or so was not worth them leaving I guess. Its a small amount of bodies until about 2015 when real attirition starts to kick in.
On the 744 they added some but not all of the bodies back in. They can do that due to the mod line currently going on. Come the Oct AE those bodies will need to be added back in. On the 777 they have been cutting staffing overall on the last few bids. The 765 has many trips that cannot be covered in the initial line construction and for that fact, the reserve staffing will remian high. This is partially true for the 330 as well, but it has some shorter trips in there as well. On the ER, they were short system wide for about six week this year. With the reserve changes they can get though next summer with no changes, and can staff the 739 from the domestic 767 category as the total block time for all 767/757 flying goes down. If they use the 757 and flex, then it will trigger hiring. The 73N has been short and ATL has been doing a ton of NYC flying. The 320 has been generally short as well, and the reserve changes will really help these categories. On the 88 they have been short since they added 20% to their block plan.
With the cuts they have announced for next year combined with the work rule changes there is a slight overstaffing in each seat. In my estimate, it ranges from 5-15 bodies in each seat in each base. One thing that muddies the water is reserve utilization and how efficient the rotation construction is of the assigned trips. Calling pilots out for rotations that had to be created due to IROPs cause the efficiency to go down. We have seen a lot of this in the last six weeks.
If I were a guessing man, work rule changes and the combined drop in capacity will allow DAL to get through most of 2013 with no need for new pilots. Any event like keeping the 757's around will change that.
As for the surpluses in each seat, I agree it makes no sense, unless you do not see a need for them within 12-15 months. The 767 category and what they do with the 757's is the key on how the narrow body staffing and AE's or displacements will result.