2017? I think it would take a significant downturn event (which is definately possible and argueably borderline likely) by then to push off hiring til 2017. But unless something like that happens, from now until the end of 2016 we have about 650 mandatory retirements (almost 200 will be early per the RMA). I just can't see them holding off hiring past all that and into a year where another 335 or so will punch out, plus all the early (sub 65) outs from future years by then.

1000+ pilots plus a cascading training bubble would make it pretty tough to not hire for. Although we do have a massive dollar/debt bubble brewing behind the scenes, global instability to say the least and a profit lever we can pull anytime we want to by gifting capacity to LCC's and foreign airlines in fantasy growth mode.

So possible, but I still can't see hiring being pushed that far out. I'd think nominal hiring next year is, right now, the most likely outcome.