Thread: Hedging the bet
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Old 09-11-2012 | 08:16 PM
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thepotato232
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Joined: Jul 2007
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From: Hopefully the bunk
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First thing you need to do is take those analyses you linked and toss them in the garbage. The authors claim that the model "use's public available information" (sic), and then proceed to make up a whole mess of very specific-sounding numbers with zero citation or basis for reasoning other than a constant, uniform 2.3% growth rate at all airlines in the United States, a phenomenon which seems as likely to me as a fleet change to flying saucers. Asking whether it is "feasible" for anyone here to make projections as far out as 2022 is basically sending out an RFP for snake oil salesmen.
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