Originally Posted by
Swedish Blender
Two things. There will never be a pilot shortage at the major/legacy/UPS/FedEx level. They won't be begging you but someone just starting out.
The problem is there are only a fraction of people "starting out" now that need to be there in the next few years. To be there in the future, they need to be there now. As it stands, it seems there's little appetite for many college students to get into aviation and specifically airline pilot positions when they have to absorb $50-75K worth of debt in addition to their normal college costs for a $36K/year job with slow progression, a lot of time away from home and little respect.
That $36K/year BTW is new-hire pay for AA, not the regionals. You think the regionals will be more attractive then that ?
You're dreaming.
Originally Posted by
Swedish Blender
In another post, you say the flying will ultimately be blended into the majors. I disagree. If you blend it in, there is no more whipsawing and cost savings. Sure there might be a return of the B scale but it would eventually be corrected just as AA's was. As long as the legacies continue to have scope eroded, management has no reason to do otherwise.
They will have little choice but to blend it in to mitigate the damage. Whipsawing is the perfect model, but depends on an endless and ADEQUATE supply of pilots. Right now there is, but in a few years when the demand increases, there won't be.
Whipsawing is worthless when your new aircraft go from assembly line to the Arizona desert.