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Old 09-22-2012 | 03:20 PM
  #110829  
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georgetg
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From: Boeing Hearing and Ergonomics Lab Rat, Night Shift
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Originally Posted by 76drvr
Johnso29, don't let that SEC filing get in the way rhetoric and pseudo analysis. This is after all a forum.
No doubt by 2015 things will be peachy and mass retirements will make all of us kings.
In the interim the mainline fleet stands at 722, so the projected growth will net 74 added airframes in the next 3 years and the commensurate additional manning. If the T&G is to be believed it's 14 bodies per jet, at any rate somewhere between 800-1000 extra pilot will be needed to fly the additional jets. (that figure of course is reduced by the number of excess pilots currently carried)

But back to that presentation subject to SEC rules - make sure to see all of the filings and presentations. Contrary to SD's explanation, the capacity cuts are not proportionally shared across the JV partners as is illustrated in this Delta slide from the Bank of America Investors conference a year ago:




Delta Slide above,
Expanded view of projections below:


I'm excited about the 74 growth airframes by 2015. but I'm also under no illusion that in the interim we will have some dry spells as far as career advancement. If you sit on a jet and a seat at a base that works for you life is good and will get better. If you don't, your light at the end of the tunnel just got a little dimmer with JG's weekly update pushing hiring to late 2013, possibly 2014. That assesment stands in contrast with the assertion from SD in an earlier weekly update where he suggested we "may...begin...preparations...for hiring...as soon as later this year...subject to the network plan." The suggestion was we will hire this year with some possible exceptions. That isn't the message currently coming from FlightOps leadership...

It feels a little like talking to a guy you lent money to. He's an honest guy but comes up with a new excuse every time you hit him up. You know he is a man of his word and will eventually make good on the debt, but the excuses of why not now, and the promises of payback just around the cover, make you leery of his current promises...


Cheers
George