Originally Posted by
flyingkangaroo
I have said this many times over. It is my firm belief that asa/xjt will not be able to find qualified pilots in 2013. The pilots they will need for attrition and rest rules will be so significant that they simply will not find them at the pay scales they have in place. Qualified ATP's will simply not come to the airline for 20K.
My guess is that attrition will increase to 20-30/ a month on the crj side and 40-60/ a month on the erj side. On top of this will be the rest rules that they MUST prepare for in advance. My guess would be an increase of about 10-15% more pilots (of the total group). That would be about 500 on the low side just for rest rules. If you combine that with attrition we may be looking at 1000 pilots or more. The only option will be to shrink the airline. Most likely, the new ual contract will bring back a large percentage of regional flying to UAL in exchange for relief of 70 seat scope. Im sure XJET is planning on this because they will not find pilots.
Hope you're right about the future hiring and lack of interested applicants. However I don't think ExpressJet will have that much trouble finding people, seeing as that there are plenty of Comair guys out on the street and looming furloughs at Pinnacle. My guess is that the hiring due to FT/DT rules and retirements at the majors will be somewhat mitigated by scope relaxation at United and a possible merger between US and American*. Not to mention the possibility that the economy might tank again...But, like I said, I hope I'm wrong and you're right!
*This will only be for the next few years, once we get closer to 2015 I think every major will be hiring in droves simply due to retirements.