Before the airlines raise pay/QOL; Airline mgmts will do everything in their power to prevent it. Even the cadet pilot programs will be last resort.
For all those who wonder what is likely to happen over the next few years, Pls consider this;
AS an unintended consequence of the ATP rule; What will happen is the Income & QOL of numerous career CFI's & other Career GA pilots who work in Jump/banner tow/ aerial mapping & Pipeline patrol, all those pilots life's QOL will take a major hit.
Already, on some of the message boards, new CFI's are offering to fly for free or split time & even MEI's are posting to split multi time. I am not saying it is right or wrong, all I am saying is what I am observing & what is happening TODAY.
People will line up at FBO's dropping numerous resumes everyday & FBO owners are no better than airline mgmts. FBO's are already pressed with low student volume & rising costs. They will take utmost advantage of that situation. The pay will stagnate initially & gradually decline.
The free CFI's desperate to break the 1200 or 1500 hrs barrier will do anything to reach that level. 141 programs will also take a hit, the low number of students will need to have more hours, so they will fly part 61, means even less flying to CFI's, it will be a self feeding situation.
TSA policies have already made USA very low on the choice list of international students, the number is sharply declining. Canada, Phillipines, NZ & AUS are taking a major share of international student volume.
Employers of pipeline patrol, aerial mapping etc etc are all small business owners, who are also pressed with rising costs & will be forced to follow suit. They will know they have fresher pilots by the ba!!$ & with nowhere to go, so they will abuse them freely & frequently.
PAY TO PLAY Abuse will Increase:
Already places like Alpine air are offering first officer programs, Pay to play programs will rise, if not every cargo outfit, an increasing number of those will be lured to enter the pay to play programs.....
Alpine Air :: Beech 99
Just look at the website of EAGLE JET, you can tell which companies are partcipating just by looking at A/C.
Even small charter operator may follow suit, why not have a paying FO in the right seat to augment revenue generation.
Who doesn't want extra income/revenue, not the corporate bean counters at least.!!!
As far as PAY/QOL increase, if ever regional airlines or even majors, ever have a slighest issue to find pilots, then:
1) 1st thing to go away will be the 2 or 4 yr degree.
2) Then next standards that will erode or get relaxed will driving records, speeding tickets, even DUI,
3) Then closely followed by check ride failure standards.
4) Multi Time will be relaxed from whatever it is today, 500 to 200 to 100 to 50
Simple Reasons:
***Now FAA has given them ATP, FAA deems them FIT to fly an airliner...
Insurance companies will also be satisfied, they pilots are deemed by FAA as FIT to fly airliners...***
PAY & QOL RAISE at regionals will have to wait for quite a few years. But before that, PAY & QOL of every possible GA job will be damaged beyond repair..
Those who deny this side of the un-intended consequences of 1500 hr rule, either
1) have little or zero knowledge & understanding of how corporate America or infact any free market economy thinks & works, or
2) are acting extremely selfish just because they think that airlines may offer joining or hiring bonuses & eventually the PILOT profession, PAY or QOL will improve.
BUT then again, who cares about those career CFIs & GA pilots, aerial mapping & pipeline patrol pilots or even junior pilots or first officers at charter/ cargo.
Our system is based on the JUNIOR to be sacred sacrfice goat/Cow, to pay the price, take sh!!ty schedules, stay on reserve & slog for years, to slowly & gradually progress & advance ahead & then become the senior & do the same thing to his next generation. The cycle repeats....
RIGHT GUYS......YES the regional airline pilots are likely to get a slight raise from $22.50 per hour to $24.00 per hour.....