Yes we do all hope. :-) but I hope that it's not just hope working in our favor.
I might have a biased perspective but 90% of our students are forgein, which is another reason why there might be a shortage. Since there is increasing percentage of forgein students compared to nationals, these students will train then go home, leaving less pilots for the US. Far as I know, the US is still the cheapest country to do flight training. At least that's what all my students say, and I'm just assuming they have done extensive research prior to making their decision on where to train.
As for the retirement thing, it would only make sense that the airline management would be planning ahead. But after a long talk with a friend of mine who is very connected to AA, I've realized they are planning, but can't take action. To start taking on the amount of pilots they will need will cost them millions in training, which they can't afford to gamble on a "possibility" when another economic crisis or a sharp rise in fuel, would completely destroy certain companies out there. To me it still looks like they're putting the cart before horse, but I also understand why they cant make the investment until they are sure. I agree, they will delay the inevitable, but the inevitable will arrive. Just look at how many pilots will be forced to retire in the upcoming years. AA in 2020 will have close to two pilots a day who will retire. Simply amazing