Originally Posted by
alfaromeo
Tell me that guy doesn't look like he has ESP today. If you ever get a chance, go listen to Delta's fuel guru talk. If he and Nate Silver got together in a room it would be like Ditka and Jordan in a death match. Such a travesty would violate all laws of nature and should never be allowed to occur. God rest Chris Farley.
Um... the NYT's Nate Silver's model is based on polls. If the polls are accurate, he's accurate. If they're not, he's not. Garbage in, garbage out.
Turns out, the polls were. He got 50 out of 50, but you know who got 49 out of 50 without having to do anything more than an @average formula? The real clear politics average of the electoral college with no toss ups.
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups
Same in 2008, Silver 49 out of 50, RCP average 48 out of 50 missing on the two closest toss up states.
So before you award him with ESP, hand it to the inventor of the rather pedestrian formula: @average. Which has a tendency, on average, to be more accurate and far more clear than Nate Silver's hidden probability formula.
Now the guy who picks right without ever doing a calculation, that'd be ESP.